Five ETFs to Watch This Week
This week has the potential to be volatile, with EU finance ministers meeting to discuss Greece and the Federal Reserve meeting to discuss monetary policy on March 16. The tentative deadline for health care reform in Congress is March 18, but that’s already looking tentative. Here’s the ETFs to watch this week.
Euro Shares(FXE)
The euro has been consolidating after a swift decline from mid-January until mid-February. The FXE has bounced slightly from its lows, and the price is back to early February levels.
Politicians were able to put the brakes on the decline by saying they would offer aid for Greece if it trimmed its deficit. Since then, Greece has pushed through a series of spending cuts and tax increases designed to close its budget shortfall.
However, it’s unclear whether the Germans will go along with a bailout. Last week Der Spiegel ran a cover story on “The Euro Lie.” It mirrors other articles that have attacked Greece for “deception,” editorials that have criticized the early Greek retirement age and politicians that have fired barbs at the country.
There’s a May regional election that could cost Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party control of the upper house in parliament and she doesn’t want to hand an issue to her opponents. It’s likely, then, that the outcome of EU finance ministers meeting will be to delay a final decision on Greece. Since it may be weeks until the next step in the process, the euro is likely to follow the course it sets this week.
iShares: FTSE Xinhua(FXI)
China’s consumer inflation reached 2.7% in February, while producer prices increased 5.4%. Chinese monetary tightening led to a global sell-off earlier this year, with FXI and resource producers bearing the brunt of the decline.
An increase in the reserve ratio or other policy changes will likely induce more selling. Weaker global financial markets may be bad news for Greece and the Europeans as well, if selling spreads there, but if the Greek rescue package includes bonds, it could reduce the interest cost for the continent.
iShares Dow Transport(IYT)
Investors will be looking to FedEx’s(FDX) third-quarter earnings report on Thursday. FedEx lowered guidance for this quarter when it last reported in December, but it raised guidance for 2010. The company accounts for 11.4% of IYT, but the impact will be much broader with major indexes at or near new highs and investors looking for some clear economic data. If FedEx maintains or raises its guidance, it would be welcome news to the bulls who already expect an earnings beat.
iShares: Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Providers Index Fund(IHF)
The companies with the most to lose in health care reform will be paying close attention to the March 18 deadline for action on the bill in Congress. With pro-life Senate Republicans willing to vote pro-choice in order to make the bill unpalatable to pro-life House Democrats, the chances of passage seem slim to none, but health care has been on the ropes before only to make a comeback–and President Obama has an extra three days to work with after delaying his Asia trip until March 21.
SPDR Gold(GLD)
There are a lot of factors that will have an impact on currency valuations and inflation expectations this week. In addition to everything mentioned already, the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday. It is expected to hold policy and rates steady, but any change in wording or outlook will have an impact. A surprise is more likely to be negative though, so investors should be cautious ahead of the meeting.
